The international economic and financial environment is marked in 2014 by a slight recovery in the euro area with a 0.8% growth against 0.4% in 2013, a slight deceleration in growth in the United States (+1, 7% against 1.9% in 2013) and in emerging and developing countries (4.6% against 4.7 in 2013). Overall, the latest projections by the International Monetary Fund forecast growth in the global economy by 3.3%, the same as in 2013. In 2015, global growth is expected to improve up to 3.8%, spurred by revival of economic activity in advanced countries in a in a context of the euro zone outing from recession. Internally, the more conducive domestic conditions attributable in particular to the start of implementation of the Plan Senegal Emergent but also to the consolidation of trade with Mali, would be beneficial to the Senegalese economy.
Uncertainties still weigh on the agricultural sub-sector due to the delay in the installation of the rainy season in most areas of the country. However, economic activity is expected to show a significant increase compared to 2013, as a result of renewed dynamism in industry and services. In total, the real GDP growth rate is expected at 4.5% in 2014 against 3.5% a year earlier. In respect of prices, inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, is projected at 0.8% against 1.4% in 2013, in a context of relief in crude oil barrel prices. Budget execution in 2014 was part of a conservative dynamics to preserve macroeconomic stability. Thus, budgetary resources would show an increase of 12.1% thus passing from 1659 billion in 2013 to 1860,3 billion in 2014.
As a result, the overall budget deficit of the central government should decrease from 5.5% of GDP in 2013 5.1% of GDP in 2014, an improvement of 0.4 percentage point. Concerning transactions with the rest of the world, they would be marked in 2014 by a light improvement in the current deficit which is expected at 9.6% of GDP against 10.8% of GDP in 2013.
The balance of the capital account and financial transactions also should improve to 55.3 billion, thanks to the good performance of financial transactions account (51.6 billion). Overall, the balance of payments is expected to generate a surplus of 92 billion against a deficit of 21.1 billion in 2013. Regarding the situation of monetary institutions between 2013 and 2014, it should come out with an improvement in net foreign assets of 92 billion, a 13.4% increase in domestic credit and an expansion of the money supply by 13.9% . In 2015, the revival of the Senegalese economy should be consolidated under the leadership of the acceleration of the implementation of the Plan Senegal Emergent (PSE). The more favorable global outlook coupled with the continued improvement of the socio-political and health situation in the sub-region would support the national economy.
Moreover, economic activity would take advantage of the measures taken by the Government to assist the private sector, through the FONSIS the FONGIP and BNDE. In total, the real GDP growth rate is expected at 5.4% in 2015. Inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, is projected at 1.4% in 2015 against an estimate of 0.8% in 2014. This increase primarily would reflect the increase in producer prices in the secondary (2.1 % against -0.1% in 2014) and tertiary (+ 1.0% against 0.6% in 2014) sectors. Regarding budget management, it will continue to focus in 2015 in furtherance of a cautious policy on public finances and debt in order to preserve macroeconomic stability. It should also allow better management of priorities identified by the authorities as part of the PSE. Overallthe budget deficit including grants is projected at 371 billion (4.5% of GDP), which shows an improvement of 0.6% compared to 2014.
As for trade with the rest of the world, it should be marked by a reduction in the deficit of current transactions account (9.2% of GDP against 9.6% in 2014) as well as the decrease in the surplus of the capital and financial operations account. Overall, the balance of payments should come out with a surplus of 59.3 billion in 2015, representing a decrease of 32.7 billion compared to 2014. Finally, under the monetary situation, it is expected in 2015 an increase of 59.3 billion in net foreign assets, a domestic credit growth of 15% and a 13.9% expansion in the money supply.
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